Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 0.219532 0.264334 0.318179 0.388345 0.478373 0.591395 7.462398e-01
2025-06-08 0.163432 0.215328 0.285198 0.388461 0.541289 0.766043 1.135395e+00
2025-06-15 0.128560 0.182669 0.262964 0.395775 0.620472 1.006892 1.776472e+00
2025-06-22 0.103335 0.156803 0.243301 0.402027 0.707531 1.323478 2.836094e+00
2025-06-29 0.081110 0.129852 0.214557 0.384476 0.751465 1.610800 4.219513e+00
2025-07-06 0.057638 0.095326 0.163771 0.309007 0.647132 1.523544 4.624851e+00
2025-07-13 0.048427 0.083691 0.151708 0.307850 0.712945 1.936427 7.478755e+00
2025-07-20 0.042447 0.076634 0.146701 0.321218 0.829941 2.657787 1.392511e+01
2025-07-27 0.038002 0.071548 0.144491 0.341638 0.990518 3.815954 2.935229e+01
2025-08-03 0.033857 0.066145 0.140159 0.355772 1.152579 5.370943 6.492857e+01
2025-08-10 0.029467 0.059261 0.130479 0.350965 1.249152 6.911614 1.337508e+02
2025-08-17 0.025547 0.052636 0.119717 0.338549 1.310369 8.525747 2.757856e+02
2025-08-24 0.022830 0.048511 0.115059 0.347596 1.508715 12.435860 1.007066e+03
2025-08-31 0.020504 0.044848 0.110710 0.356733 1.739536 18.605867 5.954361e+03
2025-09-07 0.018642 0.041957 0.107806 0.371126 2.049508 29.723920 1.335450e+05
2025-09-14 0.016974 0.039218 0.104609 0.383587 2.397653 48.583525 6.717917e+10
2025-09-21 0.015057 0.035431 0.097030 0.372307 2.552060 67.940657 NaN
2025-09-28 0.012332 0.028982 0.079228 0.303068 2.064328 53.897009 NaN
2025-10-05 0.011268 0.026994 0.075877 0.304740 2.298796 83.311031 NaN
2025-10-12 0.010558 0.025872 0.075185 0.320390 2.749403 158.441370 NaN
2025-10-19 0.010005 0.025097 0.075522 0.342929 3.399956 357.900490 NaN
2025-10-26 0.009410 0.024085 0.074719 0.359026 4.071541 833.886366 NaN
2025-11-02 0.008662 0.022476 0.071188 0.355705 4.442082 1594.796977 NaN